半导体行业领袖谈产业巨变

2013 年SEMI 产业策略研讨会议于1月14日于Half Moon Bay, Calif. 召开，与会者均来自业内顶级公司如globalfoundries，Intel，Qualcomm以及投资研究机构JP Morgan等。移动计算的增长，轻晶圆模式的转变，技术更新的不确定性，全球宏观经济路线成为2013年及以后产业的支配性力量等等，这一切都预示着 半导体 行业正在经历巨大的转变：

Ajit Manocha, CEO of GLOBALFOUNDRIES, during his keynote presentation discussed the dynamic technology and economic needs of mobile computing that is driving new approaches to the chip design-to-production cycle.  Calling it “Foundry 2.0,” he sees outsourced semiconductor manufacturing moving toward a more IDM-like model, creating new collaboration models and techniques to close the gap between process teams at foundries and design teams at the fabless companies. With daunting technical challenges like 3D stacking, 450mm fabs, new transistor architectures, multi-patterning, and the uncertainties to lithography-based scaling, product development paths with virtual teams will evolve and adapt rapidly in the coming months and years.

With new fabs now costing upwards of $8 billion and leading-edge manufacturing investments expected to exceed $40 billion this year alone, global economic trends and forces — increasingly influenced by uncertain consumer spending in both developed and emerging markets — have never been important to the semiconductor ecosystem. Dr. John Williams, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said “Many businesses are locked into a paralyzing state of anxiety.”

Williams used the ISS conference to lessen uncertainty and anxiety in the capital markets, pledging to keep interest rates near zero until the unemployment rate drops to 6.5 percent, as long as inflation expectations do not climb above 2.5 percent.

Bruce Kasman, chief economist and managing director of Global Research at JP Morgan, shared a positive economic outlook, especially in the second half of the year, that is “bumpy, better and less risky.” He sees Asia leading the economic rebound, as China demand accelerates with the change in leadership and improved access to credit.   University of Texas Austin Churchill scholar, Matthew Gertken, however, discussed the simmering “Asian cold war” developing as territorial disputes with China generate an emerging “containment policy” by many of China’s neighbors.

How these macroeconomic dynamics are impacting the semiconductor industry was discussed by speakers who saw both perils and opportunities. Andy Oberst, senior VP, Strategy and Corporate Development at Qualcomm, looked at what mobile phones would likely look like in 2020, but also pointed out how disruptive changes — not incremental changes — have always driven the mobile phone market.

Satya Kumar, vice president at Credit Suisse, discussed how original equipment makers like phone and computer manufacturers have always benefitted from the declining cost of transistors and pondered, “Could stopping Moore’s Law be a good thing?”

As the world’s largest semiconductor company, Intel’s view is different.  Michael Bell, vice president, general manager, Mobile and Communications Group at Intel, brought the audience up to date on the company’s mobile strategy, offering confidence that Intel’s portfolio of RF baseband technologies, leading-edge scaling performance, and supply chain excellence will ultimately deliver significant success.

第二天和第三天的会议宣讲人将讨论这些大趋势将如何影响R&D、产品研发、制造、投资，以及供应链所面临的挑战如何影响IC和微电子产业的众多环节。

关于SEMI产业策略研讨会

SEMI产业策略研讨会(SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium)研究全球经济、技术、市场、商业活动以及区域政策等的变化对半导体产业的影响，以及对您商业战略决策的影响。35年来，ISS一直都是半导体产业高级决策层积极参与的领头会议，这些高层人士从会议上获取趋势数据、技术亮点以及产业展望，从而进行制定商业决策、客户战略进而获得极大利润。